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History Shows Assumptions About The Future Are A Guessing Game



In 1960, I can remember a TV program predicting what the future would look like in 1985. One of the inventions described was a conveyer belt that would run from your local supermarket into your home and deliver your food items without leaving your house. I waited for this to happen, but alas, it was not to be. We have home deliveries, but that is a far cry from that prediction for 1985.


If you think the global warming/climate change predictions of impending doom are something new, well, in the 1970’s we had the fear about the coming Ice Age. Of course, none of these eventuated. All of Al Gore’s predictions have not happened. The ice sheets have not melted, global temperatures are not rising alarmingly. In fact, by historical standards, the slight warming in the past 150 years is part of interglacial warming that has recurred repeatedly. From ice core samples, scientists know that previous periods were much warmer than today. The Minoan, Roman and Medieval times were much warmer periods. Civilizations thrive in warm periods while deteriorating during colder times. Pray that we don’t get another Ice Age anytime soon.



(Source: Alley 2004)


All the assumptions made by climate alarmists about more severe storms have not come about. There are no more severe tornadoes, hurricanes or cyclones than there were 100 years ago. In fact, the 1925 Tri-state tornado outbreak was the worst in recorded history with over 600 deaths. Professor Nils Mörner justly calls climate alarmism “the greatest lie ever told”.


Assumptions that the planet would have permanent droughts turned out not to be true. Today, the earth has more vegetation than it did 50 years ago. That is a good thing. Unfortunately, alarmism sells, and the news media are complicit in the narrative.


As comedian and social critic George Carlin stated, “The planet is fine. The people are f*cked.”


I am sure most Americans thought they could stay out of the Second World War until unexpectedly, Japan launched the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor. Similarly, on September 10, 2001, life was good. The U.S. economy was starting to come out of recession and then, boom! The attacks on the World Trade Center changed our world forever. We went from seamlessly boarding flights to scans, pat-downs, removing shoes and procedures which continue to interfere with our civil rights. Who imagined that would happen?


Who would have believed that 20 years later, a virus that emanated from China would further restrict our civil liberties with mandatory mask-wearing, business shutdowns, and the dehumanization of society? Who would have believed that we would go from an open community to one steeped in excessive “safety” whereby school children could no longer get educated? Who would have thought that the longstanding tradition of handshaking would be relegated to the elbow bump?


One of the most significant assumptions in our lifetime was that the Soviet Union and its satellite states in Eastern Europe would be a permanent feature of our world. During the 1960s, a third of the world’s landmass was under Communist rule. It seemed that this would be a permanent feature for the foreseeable future. Then suddenly, almost overnight, in 1989, the Berlin Wall came tumbling down. This was a seismic event. Many were in disbelief that such sudden change could ever take place.


Today, except for China, there are only a handful of small Communist states, and yet, we now see that what was once a radical fringe group espousing Marxism, has become mainstream in America. We see members of the U.S. Congress openly promoting Marxist philosophy with totalitarian enforcement. Few foresaw this in the “land of the free and the home of the brave”.


Many of us make assumptions about our own lives, whether it’s our finances, relationships or professional lives. How often have the best-laid plans gone awry because of some unexpected event in our lives?


So the lesson is, don’t close your eyes to what could happen in all things. Do your due diligence and think outside the box. Expect the unexpected. Don't assume anything.

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Ely Lazar

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