One of the momentous events in sporting history took place in 1974, in the country of Zaire. It was "Rumble In The Jungle", the boxing Heavyweight Championship which pitted a younger and massively built George Foreman against an older Muhammed Ali. The build-up to the match and the event itself was immortalized in the documentary, Once We Were Kings.
In the pre-match, Foreman was the overwhelming favourite and few expected Ali to win. Many feared for Ali's well-being because of Foreman's size and strength. Of course, Ali was a wily character. Instead of trying to go toe to toe with Foreman, Ali danced around the ring and then leaned back against the ropes allowing Foreman to pound away, keeping his gloves up to protect himself. Occasionally, he would lash out with a quick one-two punch. This strategy was forever known as the rope-a-dope. After seven rounds of this tactic, Foreman was a spent man, and in the eighth round, Ali unleashed a flurry of punches that knocked Foreman out.
In boxing circles, the archetype Rocky is the hard-hitting heavyweight boxer as exemplified by Rocky Marciano in the 1950s and Sylvester Stallone in the 1976 movie, Rocky. So, on the one hand, you have the aggressive, in-your-face boxer, on the other hand, you have the passive rope-a-dope, but effective counterpuncher.
In the upcoming election, comparing Donald Trump and Joe Biden to these boxing icons is an apt comparison. Trump is the aggressive boxer, hard-hitting, yet at times flailing with sometimes erratic results. Joe Biden, is very passive, hunkered down in the basement of his home, making few, but timely appearances. To date, Biden's "rope-a-dope" technique is working. By all accounts, every major poll has Biden leading, despite all of Trump's in-your-face messaging and the advantage of presidential incumbency.
There is no mistaking that Joe Biden is in the early stages of senility with cognitive decline. By keeping Biden mostly out of public view, the Democratic Party is betting on a minimal of gaffes. In his career, Biden has been prone to glaring mistakes but even more so now, with his mental decline. At times he has difficulty just reading off a teleprompter. Occasionally, Biden does a little one-two punch against Trump, only to then go back to his rope-a-dope hiding place.
Trump, on the other hand, is full of energy always aggressive, throwing punches from every direction. What frustrates many of Trump's supporters is that often his punches don't land. Just when it appears that he is winning, suddenly he says something which misses the mark and is counterproductive. A recent case in point is when Trump made the statement that the there may need to be a delay in the election because of fraudulent mail-in ballots. The tactic was a mistake, giving his opponents more ammunition to pounce on him. First and foremost, elections must occur promptly, and if they are not, according to the 20th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, the President has to vacate his office by January 20. In such a scenario, Congress would decide who would take over the Presidency.
The other reasons why the Biden tactics are successful are because of Covid-19, the riots and the media. Remember before February 2020; Trump was riding high. Now, the media narrative is to blame Trump both for Covid-19 deaths and the rioting. At the same time, the Democrats are happy to keep the country shut down until the election. Trump doesn't help himself when he buys into arguments with reporters. Meanwhile, Biden sits quietly in his basement.
Currently, if the election took place today, Biden would win by a split decision. While Muhammed Ali won by a knockout, Biden is unlikely to do that unless some unexpected situation erupts between now and November. If Biden doesn't engage in debates, and the economic doldrums roll on, my prediction is that Trump will lose this election. One consideration is who Biden selects as his Vice Presidential nominee. If that person, presumed to be a female, is a radical leftist, that could be the death blow to Biden.
During election cycles as in boxing, psychology plays an important role. Something often not considered which, is counterintuitive, is the factor of Trump fatigue. A case in point is what happened in the 2007 election in Australia. John Howard was one of the most successful Prime Ministers ever. He brought unemployment down to low levels, oversaw considerable wage growth and turned a 100 billion dollar deficit into a surplus. Overall the Australian economy was booming, and yet, John Howard's Party lost the election with Howard even losing his electoral seat. There was no logical reason for this except that people got "tired" of the Howard government. A similar factor could be at play in the U.S. because, for some people, Trump's in-your-face style can be tiresome.
Finally, there is another but an unlikely possibility. If Biden were to select someone like Michelle Obama, it would be the knockout punch. The ex-President's wife is the most popular female figure in the U.S. today and her biographical book sold over 10 million copies. Biden would have the critical female vote in hand.
It will be interesting what twists and turns this election campaign will provide. Whether the rope-a-dope candidate wins out is open for debate. One thing is for sure; America's future will change radically if Joe Biden and his Democrat Party win this election. They have said what they propose to do, so people should believe them.
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